主讲人

（单位）

Professor Xuan Zhao（Wilfrid Laurier University）

主持人

（单位）

何勇

（电影天堂 ）

讲座时间

2026年5月15日

（周五）下午14:00

讲座地点

经管楼B201

主讲人简介

Dr. Zhao is a Professor in the Area of Operations and Decision Sciences, and a Lazaridis Research Chair in Supply Chain Innovation in the Lazaridis School of Business and Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University. She holds a Ph.D. in the joint fields of Management Science and Transportation/Logistics from the University of British Columbia. Her research involves utilizing the tools of Management Science/Operations Research and Economics to model, analyze, and derive insights into problems in the areas of Supply Chain Management, Marketing/OM interfaces, Revenue Management, Entrepreneurships, Behavior Operations and Sustainable Operations. Her research papers appear in prestigious refereed journals in operations such as Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, Production and Operations Management, European Journal of Operational Research, as well as marketing journals such as Quantitative Marketing and Economics, European Journal of Marketing.

Dr. Zhao’s research has been recognized and supported by research councils in Canada such as Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, and Ministry of Ontario Research and Innovation Council. External and internal funds enable her to supervise many post-docs, graduate and undergraduate students.

Within the academic community, Dr. Zhao currently serves as Associate Editors for the Journal of Operational Research Society and Supply Chain Analytics, on the editorial Board of Production and Operations Management; she is also an Adjunct Professor at the Department of Management Science in the University of Waterloo.

讲座内容摘要

Recent research has shown that overconfidence is a significant behavioral factor in the context of transshipment (Li et al. 2021). Yet, the operational dynamics of transshipment with this bias remain largely unexplored. To address this gap, we develop an analytical framework to investigate the impact of overconfidence bias on the equilibrium and performance of transshipment systems, and complement our theoretical findings with controlled laboratory experiments involving human subjects. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that favors centralization, our analytical results reveal that decentralized transshipment practices can paradoxically outperform centralized benchmarks when newsvendors are sufficiently overconfident. We attribute this finding to a behavioral dividend inherent in decentralized structures: overconfidence counteracts the inherent inefficiency of decentralization by driving quantities toward the first-best level. Furthermore, we show that coordinating transfer prices fail to exist under high levels of overconfidence. In such cases, the system’s performance hinges on a strategic alignment: newsvendors with high (low) net profit margins benefit significantly more from increased (decreased) transfer prices. Our experimental evidence strongly corroborates these theoretical predictions. These findings offer actionable insights for supply chain managers on how to effectively design behavioral-robust transshipment contracts and identify the boundary conditions under which decentralized structures should be leveraged to harvest the proactive tendencies of overconfident decision-makers.